Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2711 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–48%.

Safest bet that day AA 2711 JAX 06:00 → MIA 07:23 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 3605 JAX 19:37 → MIA 20:57 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2711 American Flight history →	JAX 06:00	MIA 07:23	9%	4%	1.2%	93%
AA 3492 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	JAX 08:00	MIA 09:20	14%	5%	1.2%	83%
AA 3609 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	JAX 09:59	MIA 11:20	18%	6%	1.9%	90%
AA 3605 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	JAX 19:37	MIA 20:57	48%	18%	4.2%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON