Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2392 at 17:49, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2392 Delta Flight history →	JAX 17:49	MSP 19:59	19%	5%	1.0%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 08:44 → MSP 10:18DL 2960	5h 48m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	JAX 06:20 → BNA 06:50WN 2155	1h 20m Nashville	BNA 08:10 → MSP 10:15WN 2160	4h 55m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090	5h 31m	99%	88%
United Details →	JAX 09:20 → IAD 11:16UA 1434	2h 04m Dulles	IAD 13:20 → MSP 15:11UA 3576 · flown by Republic	6h 51m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	JAX 06:45 → BOS 09:34DL 5632 · flown by Republic	2h 16m Boston	BOS 11:50 → MSP 14:02DL 1103	8h 17m	97%	87%
Southwest Details →	JAX 07:45 → MDW 09:05WN 1384	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 10:15 → MSP 11:45WN 2869	5h 00m	96%	86%
American Details →	JAX 07:10 → ORD 08:58AA 2102	2h 49m Chicago	ORD 11:47 → MSP 13:32AA 3375 · flown by Envoy	7h 22m	99%	85%
United Details →	JAX 08:09 → DEN 09:55UA 671	3h 47m Denver	DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732	9h 37m	99%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	JAX 18:35 → ORD 20:34UA 6012 · flown by SkyWest	54m Chicago	ORD 21:28 → MSP 23:10UA 1131	5h 35m	57%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON