Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1733 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 1733 JAX 07:20 → ORD 09:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 6012 JAX 18:35 → ORD 20:34 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1733 United Flight history →	JAX 07:20	ORD 09:12	9%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 2102 American Flight history →	JAX 07:10	ORD 08:58	9%	3%	1.1%	88%
AA 4740 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JAX 13:21	ORD 15:09	17%	5%	1.4%	83%
UA 5434 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	JAX 11:33	ORD 13:30	20%	7%	1.3%	78%
UA 2211 United Flight history →	JAX 16:55	ORD 18:48	21%	8%	0.8%	70%
AA 3317 American Flight history →	JAX 17:58	ORD 19:59	27%	8%	1.6%	54%
UA 6012 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	JAX 18:35	ORD 20:34	31%	9%	3.2%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450	47m Atlanta	ATL 09:02 → ORD 10:10DL 1147	4h 10m	80%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON