Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 709 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 709 JAX 07:00 → PHL 09:14 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1990 JAX 17:50 → PHL 20:06 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 709 American Flight history →	JAX 07:00	PHL 09:14	8%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 2865 American Flight history →	JAX 09:47	PHL 11:59	12%	4%	1.3%	85%
F9 3480 Frontier Flight history →	JAX 13:14	PHL 15:29	23%	10%	1.4%	76%
AA 5248 American flown by PSA Flight history →	JAX 16:29	PHL 18:50	25%	11%	2.4%	54%
AA 1990 American Flight history →	JAX 17:50	PHL 20:06	26%	9%	1.5%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON