tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2858 American Flight history → JAX 08:00 PHX 09:21 10% 4% 0.7% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348 6h 31m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → JAX 06:20 → BNA 06:50WN 2155 1h 15m Nashville BNA 08:05 → PHX 09:40WN 3770 6h 20m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 03m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → JAX 06:18 → CLT 07:45AA 1834 1h 56m Charlotte CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986 7h 46m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → JAX 06:24 → EWR 08:48UA 2673 2h 36m Newark EWR 11:24 → PHX 13:39UA 370 10h 15m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → JAX 07:05 → IAH 08:29UA 2453 1h 11m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 6h 29m 95% 82%
AmericanDetails → JAX 07:00 → PHL 09:14AA 709 1h 51m Philadelphia PHL 11:05 → PHX 13:09AA 646 9h 09m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → JAX 05:52 → DFW 07:40AA 2789 3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:50 → PHX 11:19AA 2990 8h 27m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → JAX 17:20 → DEN 18:50WN 2161 1h 15m Denver DEN 20:05 → PHX 21:05WN 4447 6h 45m 69% 47%
AmericanDetails → JAX 17:58 → ORD 19:59AA 3317 55m Chicago ORD 20:54 → PHX 22:36AA 332 7h 38m 72% 47%
AmericanDetails → JAX 18:11 → CLT 19:45AA 1999 50m Charlotte CLT 20:35 → PHX 21:53AA 2923 6h 42m 68% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON