Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 449 at 16:55, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 449 Southwest Flight history →	JAX 16:55	STL 18:05	25%	6%	0.8%	51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	5h 13m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	6h 17m	99%	86%
United Details →	JAX 06:24 → EWR 08:48UA 2673	1h 05m Newark	EWR 09:53 → STL 11:41UA 3630 · flown by Republic	6h 17m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	JAX 09:41 → ATL 10:54DL 2328	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 14:09 → STL 14:48DL 2700	6h 07m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	JAX 07:45 → MDW 09:05WN 1384	3h 55m Chicago	MDW 13:00 → STL 14:10WN 2902	7h 25m	100%	85%
American Details →	JAX 06:18 → CLT 07:45AA 1834	3h 15m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → STL 11:55AA 2717	6h 37m	99%	85%
United Details →	JAX 11:37 → IAH 13:11UA 4039 · flown by Mesa	2h 20m Houston	IAH 15:31 → STL 17:42UA 6160 · flown by Mesa	7h 05m	99%	82%
United Details →	JAX 07:20 → ORD 09:12UA 1733	1h 28m Chicago	ORD 10:40 → STL 12:11UA 1355	5h 51m	96%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	JAX 19:15 → MDW 20:45WN 2164	50m Chicago	MDW 21:35 → STL 22:55WN 2905	4h 40m	66%	49%
United Details →	JAX 19:09 → EWR 21:29UA 758	48m Newark	EWR 22:17 → STL 23:44UA 1527	5h 35m	63%	45%
American Details →	JAX 19:41 → DFW 21:25AA 1980	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:12 → STL 00:04 +1AA 3049	5h 23m	63%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON