Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1536 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 09:33	ANC 13:30	13%	3%	0.9%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 12:59 → DTW 15:00DL 2343	3h 35m Detroit	DTW 18:35 → ANC 21:20DL 1134	12h 21m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → ANC 18:48DL 416	14h 08m	99%	76%
American Details →	JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234	3h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:38 → ANC 18:30AA 1355	14h 15m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:14DL 699	3h 26m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928	13h 25m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21	2h 02m Seattle	SEA 12:18 → ANC 15:06AS 657	12h 06m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	2h 40m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → ANC 20:08DL 931	12h 38m	97%	71%
Alaska Details →	JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23	2h 27m Seattle	SEA 18:46 → ANC 21:25AS 661	12h 25m	97%	66%
Alaska Details →	JFK 16:29 → SEA 20:09AS 31	3h 50m Seattle	SEA 23:59 → ANC 02:43 +1AS 1363	14h 14m	97%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JFK 18:20 → MSP 21:00DL 4933 · flown by Endeavor	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411	10h 39m	72%	55%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:56 → SEA 20:28DL 740	52m Seattle	SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936	11h 02m	70%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON