tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 11:14, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 2h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 9h 30m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390 3h 52m Minneapolis MSP 13:17 → BZN 14:47DL 2946 9h 32m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406 9h 11m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 9h 56m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29AA 475 3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:19 → BZN 15:22AA 1647 10h 52m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 52m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971 7h 17m 91% 83%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:56 → ORD 09:59AA 4356 · flown by Republic 3h 50m Chicago ORD 13:49 → BZN 16:13AA 1639 10h 17m 98% 83%
JetBlueDetails → JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:14B6 2718 1h 29m Boston BOS 08:43 → BZN 11:42B6 257 7h 42m 96% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → JFK 18:29 → SLC 22:08DL 863 57m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 7h 54m 74% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON