Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4538 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 4538 JFK 06:30 → DCA 07:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest B6 955 JFK 21:30 → DCA 22:59 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4538 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 06:30	DCA 07:59	6%	2%	0.8%	81%
DL 5750 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 08:35	DCA 10:09	8%	2%	0.8%	92%
AA 4671 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 09:30	DCA 10:59	10%	3%	0.8%	67%
AA 4336 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 22:00	DCA 23:31	17%	4%	1.1%	76%
DL 5743 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 21:20	DCA 22:59	21%	7%	1.1%	68%
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 15:20	DCA 16:59	22%	6%	0.9%	60%
B6 955 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:30	DCA 22:59	43%	15%	1.1%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON