Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 532 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 532 JFK 08:30 → DEN 10:58 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 97 JFK 20:00 → DEN 22:42 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 532 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:30	DEN 10:58	10%	2%	0.6%	85%
B6 1497 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:30	DEN 13:11	11%	5%	0.7%	83%
DL 424 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:50	DEN 22:45	17%	4%	0.6%	70%
DL 457 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:00	DEN 18:50	21%	4%	0.6%	75%
B6 97 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:00	DEN 22:42	26%	8%	0.8%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 12:59 → DTW 15:00DL 2343	1h 21m Detroit	DTW 16:21 → DEN 17:27DL 2431	6h 28m	95%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON