Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 475 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 475 JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 496 JFK 17:55 → DFW 21:07 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 475 American Flight history →	JFK 06:30	DFW 09:29	5%	2%	0.8%	96%
AA 2234 American Flight history →	JFK 08:15	DFW 11:11	8%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 2049 American Flight history →	JFK 11:21	DFW 14:17	11%	4%	0.8%	76%
AA 1953 American Flight history →	JFK 14:42	DFW 17:44	16%	5%	0.8%	69%
AA 606 American Flight history →	JFK 17:25	DFW 20:30	19%	6%	0.9%	60%
DL 496 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:55	DFW 21:07	24%	6%	0.9%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	59m Charlotte	CLT 08:56 → DFW 10:48AA 1276	5h 49m	95%	81%
American Details →	JFK 09:30 → DCA 10:59AA 4671 · flown by Republic	1h 00m Washington	DCA 11:59 → DFW 14:23AA 1623	5h 53m	90%	76%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	57m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → DFW 15:45DL 921	5h 45m	89%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON