Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1422 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 1422 JFK 07:00 → FLL 10:07 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 1701 JFK 20:00 → FLL 23:23 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1422 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	FLL 10:07	9%	2%	1.2%	88%
B6 1 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 05:50	FLL 08:50	10%	4%	1.8%	85%
B6 1601 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:50	FLL 09:58	12%	4%	1.9%	87%
DL 305 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:14	FLL 14:24	16%	4%	1.2%	80%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:30	FLL 18:54	21%	7%	1.5%	75%
DL 1414 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:58	FLL 23:28	25%	9%	4.1%	68%
B6 1801 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 09:30	FLL 12:47	26%	8%	1.7%	65%
B6 2201 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:00	FLL 15:10	30%	10%	1.8%	68%
B6 1501 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:43	FLL 21:04	33%	14%	5.7%	64%
B6 1701 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:00	FLL 23:23	40%	18%	5.6%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON