Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 636 Delta Flight history →	JFK 10:30	HNL 15:21	14%	4%	0.7%	77%
AS 829 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 08:55	HNL 13:49	20%	5%	1.4%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	13h 20m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	2h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	14h 19m	100%	82%
American Details →	JFK 09:00 → LAX 11:58AA 1	3h 57m Los Angeles	LAX 15:55 → HNL 18:41AA 143	15h 41m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:00 → LAX 10:58DL 713	2h 57m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	14h 43m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:50 → LAX 16:47DL 747	1h 50m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	13h 32m	95%	74%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → DTW 09:23DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	1h 07m Detroit	DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307	12h 52m	89%	74%
Alaska Details →	JFK 09:33 → ANC 13:30AS 1536	2h 30m Anchorage	ANC 16:00 → HNL 20:05AS 49	16h 32m	95%	74%
American Details →	JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369	1h 30m Phoenix	PHX 10:48 → HNL 14:27AA 675	13h 25m	94%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON