tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195 7h 10m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29AA 475 1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:51 → HOU 12:16AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 6h 46m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381 8h 42m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234 3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:21 → HOU 15:44AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest 8h 29m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → JFK 11:21 → DFW 14:17AA 2049 2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:56 → HOU 18:19AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest 7h 58m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051 7h 10m 95% 73%
AmericanDetails → JFK 17:25 → DFW 20:30AA 606 2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA 7h 31m 92% 68%
AmericanDetails → JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → HOU 19:53AA 3351 · flown by Envoy 6h 11m 79% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON