Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 5835 at 10:14, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5835 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 10:14	IAD 11:49	7%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 5076 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 16:40	IAD 18:32	38%	21%	12.7%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135	8h 01m	100%	87%
American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	3h 08m Charlotte	CLT 11:05 → IAD 12:38AA 5220 · flown by PSA	6h 39m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695	8h 06m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:30 → DTW 18:57DL 2443	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest	6h 43m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902	7h 30m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03DL 1309	7h 53m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	7h 01m	95%	76%
American Details →	JFK 15:30 → CLT 17:44AA 1294	2h 47m Charlotte	CLT 20:31 → IAD 22:05AA 5549 · flown by PSA	6h 35m	96%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON