Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: B6 1381 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 1381 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:15	IAH 11:00	22%	6%	0.8%	66%
B6 281 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 14:29	IAH 17:19	35%	12%	0.8%	51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	JFK 07:56 → ORD 09:59AA 4356 · flown by Republic	3h 36m Chicago	ORD 13:35 → IAH 16:31AA 4426 · flown by Republic	9h 35m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682	6h 14m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	59m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673	6h 59m	94%	81%
American Details →	JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234	3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:33 → IAH 15:48AA 3583 · flown by Envoy	8h 33m	98%	79%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	2h 23m Charlotte	CLT 12:30 → IAH 14:12AA 1919	7h 13m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → DTW 09:23DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	3h 07m Detroit	DTW 12:30 → IAH 14:30DL 1864	8h 15m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	3h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514	11h 36m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 14:46 → IAH 15:56DL 2890	8h 16m	98%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	JFK 09:30 → FLL 12:47B6 1801	58m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 13:45 → IAH 15:47B6 2379	7h 17m	74%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON