Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4385 JFK 11:52 → IND 14:14 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 4446 JFK 20:00 → IND 22:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4385 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 11:52	IND 14:14	9%	2%	0.7%	89%
AA 4449 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 15:30	IND 18:02	12%	4%	0.8%	76%
AA 4446 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 20:00	IND 22:35	14%	5%	0.9%	75%
DL 4976 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 09:50	IND 12:12	14%	4%	2.3%	86%
DL 4984 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 13:59	IND 16:32	19%	7%	4.1%	81%
DL 4914 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 18:20	IND 21:02	25%	12%	8.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON