Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 411 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–31%.

Safest bet that day B6 411 JFK 06:40 → LAS 09:11 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 1511 JFK 22:00 → LAS 00:49 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 411 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:40	LAS 09:11	7%	2%	0.8%	94%
DL 607 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	LAS 09:27	8%	2%	0.8%	85%
AA 3038 American Flight history →	JFK 07:59	LAS 10:40	11%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 807 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:30	LAS 14:01	13%	3%	0.8%	82%
B6 511 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 11:00	LAS 13:43	16%	5%	0.9%	84%
DL 568 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:29	LAS 22:20	21%	7%	0.9%	71%
DL 806 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:00	LAS 19:50	22%	6%	0.8%	82%
DL 781 Delta Flight history →	JFK 21:49	LAS 00:39	22%	6%	0.9%	71%
AA 2855 American Flight history →	JFK 18:30	LAS 21:23	23%	7%	1.0%	74%
B6 1211 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:45	LAS 19:30	29%	8%	0.9%	83%worse than usual
B6 1511 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 22:00	LAS 00:49	31%	8%	1.1%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	8h 00m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 12:59 → DTW 15:00DL 2343	1h 35m Detroit	DTW 16:35 → LAS 17:51DL 766	7h 52m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542	7h 35m	91%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON