Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Detroit, leaving 12:59, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5408 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 15:38	MCI 18:10	31%	10%	4.6%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747	7h 13m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	1h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882	8h 57m	98%	85%
American Details →	JFK 10:11 → ORD 12:05AA 4365 · flown by Republic	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 14:58 → MCI 16:49AA 4745 · flown by Republic	7h 38m	97%	84%
American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	1h 58m Charlotte	CLT 09:55 → MCI 11:23AA 2052	6h 24m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443	6h 49m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	55m Minneapolis	MSP 10:20 → MCI 11:46DL 1608	5h 31m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → DTW 09:23DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	3h 02m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MCI 13:24DL 2741	7h 09m	98%	82%
American Details →	JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29AA 475	2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:12 → MCI 13:58AA 6238 · flown by SkyWest	8h 28m	100%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JFK 17:25 → MIA 20:59AA 688	46m Miami	MIA 21:45 → MCI 23:59AA 670	7h 34m	56%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON