Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 883 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–37%.

Safest bet that day B6 883 JFK 05:30 → MCO 08:14 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest B6 2583 JFK 20:00 → MCO 23:08 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 883 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 05:30	MCO 08:14	7%	3%	12.0%	75%
DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	MCO 09:59	7%	2%	10.8%	84%
DL 2019 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:53	MCO 12:51	13%	3%	15.6%	78%
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:27	MCO 14:17	15%	4%	16.6%	81%
B6 383 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:55	MCO 14:03	16%	8%	16.8%	71%
B6 83 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:21	MCO 15:17	21%	10%	17.8%	69%
DL 1685 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:00	MCO 18:20	22%	7%	15.7%	76%
DL 1740 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:59	MCO 23:19	24%	8%	15.8%	67%
B6 483 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:56	MCO 20:05	28%	14%	17.1%	60%
B6 1083 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:00	MCO 00:07	31%	15%	17.1%	67%
B6 283 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 19:00	MCO 22:10	31%	16%	17.7%	62%
B6 2583 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:00	MCO 23:08	37%	16%	17.2%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON