Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 655 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 655 JFK 05:55 → MIA 09:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 688 JFK 17:25 → MIA 20:59 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 655 American Flight history →	JFK 05:55	MIA 09:12	7%	2%	1.5%	95%
DL 1528 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	MIA 10:24	10%	3%	1.4%	86%
AA 2017 American Flight history →	JFK 07:30	MIA 10:45	14%	3%	1.5%	85%
DL 2500 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:10	MIA 18:53	25%	9%	1.7%	72%
DL 1428 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:55	MIA 23:37	25%	10%	1.8%	70%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:08	MIA 14:22	25%	5%	2.1%	78%
AA 525 American Flight history →	JFK 11:45	MIA 14:50	27%	6%	2.2%	73%
AA 2026 American Flight history →	JFK 21:00	MIA 00:21	27%	10%	2.0%	59%
AA 1174 American Flight history →	JFK 18:50	MIA 22:22	27%	9%	1.8%	74%
AA 683 American Flight history →	JFK 13:59	MIA 17:16	27%	8%	1.6%	74%
AA 1479 American Flight history →	JFK 16:00	MIA 19:26	28%	9%	1.7%	68%
AA 688 American Flight history →	JFK 17:25	MIA 20:59	30%	9%	2.1%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON