Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Detroit, leaving 12:59, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Milwaukee on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4986 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 17:30	MKE 19:24	28%	15%	4.5%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 10:51 → MKE 11:53DL 1151	6h 53m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:26DL 5765 · flown by Republic	1h 44m Boston	BOS 09:10 → MKE 10:54DL 5614 · flown by Republic	5h 54m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 14:05 → MKE 15:04DL 2152	7h 24m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	3h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 16:58 → MKE 18:16DL 4462 · flown by SkyWest	7h 41m	98%	82%
American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	3h 41m Charlotte	CLT 11:38 → MKE 12:44AA 2134	7h 45m	99%	81%
American Details →	JFK 06:30 → DCA 07:59AA 4538 · flown by Republic	3h 24m Washington	DCA 11:23 → MKE 12:34AA 5286 · flown by PSA	7h 04m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → MKE 17:40DL 1206	7h 40m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 22:52 → MKE 23:56DL 1268	7h 16m	95%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON