Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1368 JFK 08:30 → MSY 10:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest DL 1387 JFK 15:31 → MSY 18:02 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1368 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:30	MSY 10:51	9%	2%	1.1%	86%
B6 75 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 09:00	MSY 11:24	14%	5%	1.1%	86%
DL 1387 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:31	MSY 18:02	17%	5%	2.1%	80%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	JFK 09:30 → DCA 10:59AA 4671 · flown by Republic	46m Washington	DCA 11:45 → MSY 13:27AA 3175	4h 57m	86%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON