Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5859 at 11:14 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5859 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 11:14	MVY 12:38	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
B6 1538 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 14:59	MVY 16:10	22%	7%	0.9%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Martha's Vineyard on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


JetBlue Details →	JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:14B6 2718	2h 07m Boston	BOS 09:21 → MVY 10:08B6 1324	4h 08m	98%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON