tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 1h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest 8h 46m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887 2h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest 10h 23m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 59m Salt Lake City SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest 8h 07m 87% 79%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21 1h 25m Seattle SEA 11:41 → OAK 13:59AS 1328 9h 59m 94% 62%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23 1h 06m Seattle SEA 17:25 → OAK 19:33AS 706 9h 33m 80% 50%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 11:30 → SAN 14:27AS 35 2h 28m San Diego SAN 16:55 → OAK 18:33AS 2190 · flown by Horizon 10h 03m 97% 44%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → JFK 16:57 → SAN 20:08AS 25 53m San Diego SAN 21:01 → OAK 22:41AS 2285 · flown by Horizon 8h 44m 60% 20%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON