Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 11:14, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 355 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 19:30	ONT 22:36	26%	9%	0.8%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	2h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:21 → ONT 12:10DL 3172	9h 10m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	1h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:35 → ONT 16:30DL 4443 · flown by SkyWest	8h 16m	93%	84%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887	3h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614	10h 21m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	52m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	7h 38m	92%	80%
American Details →	JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369	1h 27m Phoenix	PHX 10:45 → ONT 12:02AA 2244	8h 00m	94%	78%
American Details →	JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29AA 475	2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:22AA 2239	9h 52m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891	10h 30m	98%	72%
American Details →	JFK 12:29 → PHX 14:43AA 2829	2h 21m Phoenix	PHX 17:04 → ONT 18:18AA 2639	8h 49m	97%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JFK 18:29 → SLC 22:08DL 863	51m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614	8h 19m	69%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON