Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4356 at 07:56 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 4356 JFK 07:56 → ORD 09:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 805 JFK 20:00 → ORD 21:58 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4356 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 07:56	ORD 09:59	7%	3%	1.0%	85%
AA 4365 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 10:11	ORD 12:05	9%	3%	1.2%	89%
B6 905 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:09	ORD 08:52	12%	4%	1.1%	90%
AA 3321 American Flight history →	JFK 13:59	ORD 15:53	14%	5%	1.9%	79%
DL 5640 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 19:35	ORD 21:52	14%	7%	1.4%	65%
B6 405 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 14:29	ORD 16:16	29%	11%	1.4%	65%
B6 805 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:00	ORD 21:58	35%	13%	1.3%	35%
DL 5119 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 10:30	ORD 12:20	14%	3%	7.0%	86%
DL 4725 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 07:30	ORD 09:25	26%	14%	12.5%	74%
DL 4783 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 15:00	ORD 17:11	26%	14%	23.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON