Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2018 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 2018 JFK 07:16 → PBI 10:20 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 53 JFK 13:29 → PBI 16:30 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2018 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:16	PBI 10:20	10%	3%	2.0%	89%
B6 953 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:30	PBI 09:28	10%	3%	1.4%	90%
DL 1638 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:45	PBI 19:04	26%	10%	3.8%	74%
B6 1053 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 19:00	PBI 22:15	38%	17%	3.2%	64%
B6 53 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 13:29	PBI 16:30	39%	14%	5.7%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON