Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1574 JFK 08:30 → PDX 11:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 19 JFK 17:08 → PDX 20:33 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1574 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:30	PDX 11:36	8%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 684 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:59	PDX 21:13	15%	5%	0.7%	68%
AS 19 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 17:08	PDX 20:33	17%	5%	0.7%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → PDX 12:38DL 2167	8h 23m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	2h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	9h 00m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	8h 46m	88%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON