Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2369 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2369 JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 135 JFK 19:05 → PHX 21:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2369 American Flight history →	JFK 07:02	PHX 09:18	9%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 791 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:10	PHX 10:30	10%	2%	0.8%	83%
AA 1769 American Flight history →	JFK 09:16	PHX 11:36	11%	3%	0.8%	81%
AA 2829 American Flight history →	JFK 12:29	PHX 14:43	13%	4%	0.8%	82%
AA 2339 American Flight history →	JFK 17:00	PHX 19:31	18%	6%	1.0%	78%
DL 798 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:29	PHX 20:08	20%	6%	1.1%	73%
DL 784 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:55	PHX 23:37	23%	6%	1.1%	65%
AA 2689 American Flight history →	JFK 19:30	PHX 22:01	23%	7%	1.0%	62%
B6 135 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 19:05	PHX 21:45	28%	8%	1.1%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29AA 475	1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:50 → PHX 11:19AA 2990	7h 49m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	7h 34m	91%	76%
American Details →	JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234	1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:33 → PHX 13:00AA 1685	7h 45m	95%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON