Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4734 at 14:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 4734 JFK 14:35 → PIT 16:22 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 1195 JFK 21:55 → PIT 23:46 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4734 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 14:35	PIT 16:22	8%	3%	0.8%	86%
DL 5685 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 15:10	PIT 17:15	10%	3%	0.9%	78%
DL 5795 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 19:29	PIT 21:39	12%	4%	1.0%	74%
AA 4611 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 20:30	PIT 22:23	12%	4%	1.0%	75%
B6 1195 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:55	PIT 23:46	28%	10%	1.0%	66%
DL 5086 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 09:50	PIT 11:45	20%	8%	5.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON