tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, B6 1128 at 21:35, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1128 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 21:35 PVD 22:56 35% 9% 0.9% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → PVD 12:29DL 2147 6h 29m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → JFK 06:30 → DCA 07:59AA 4538 · flown by Republic 2h 01m Washington DCA 10:00 → PVD 11:30AA 5337 · flown by PSA 5h 00m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:56 → ORD 09:59AA 4356 · flown by Republic 3h 30m Chicago ORD 13:29 → PVD 16:59AA 3771 · flown by Envoy 9h 03m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643 58m Charlotte CLT 08:55 → PVD 10:57AA 2336 4h 58m 95% 85%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444 3h 37m Charlotte CLT 13:44 → PVD 15:48AA 2318 7h 49m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → JFK 09:30 → DCA 10:59AA 4671 · flown by Republic 2h 00m Washington DCA 12:59 → PVD 14:30AA 5334 · flown by PSA 5h 00m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:30 → DTW 18:57DL 2443 2h 33m Detroit DTW 21:30 → PVD 23:36DL 3795 · flown by SkyWest 7h 06m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314 7h 49m 97% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON