Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4658 at 12:59 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 4658 JFK 12:59 → RDU 14:57 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest B6 185 JFK 20:30 → RDU 22:32 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4658 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 12:59	RDU 14:57	9%	3%	0.9%	74%
AA 4573 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 22:10	RDU 00:12	12%	5%	1.1%	72%
B6 2285 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:23	RDU 10:08	17%	6%	1.0%	85%
AA 4804 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 18:30	RDU 20:27	18%	5%	1.1%	66%
B6 2785 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 14:59	RDU 16:47	30%	12%	1.1%	56%
B6 585 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:35	RDU 20:39	37%	14%	1.2%	61%
B6 185 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:30	RDU 22:32	37%	14%	1.2%	57%
DL 5097 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 08:51	RDU 10:49	15%	5%	2.8%	85%
DL 5028 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 12:30	RDU 14:21	24%	9%	4.1%	76%
DL 5150 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 16:50	RDU 19:09	25%	12%	5.7%	75%
DL 5103 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 19:25	RDU 21:38	27%	12%	8.4%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON