Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 186 at 11:39 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Safest bet that day B6 186 JFK 11:39 → ROC 13:12 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest B6 1186 JFK 22:29 → ROC 00:08 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 186 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 11:39	ROC 13:12	17%	5%	1.0%	84%
B6 1186 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 22:29	ROC 00:08	30%	12%	1.4%	64%
DL 5330 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 09:20	ROC 10:53	13%	2%	2.8%	87%
DL 5299 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 16:50	ROC 18:41	25%	15%	5.2%	75%
DL 5297 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 22:59	ROC 00:53	27%	12%	6.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON