Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2320 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 2320 JFK 08:10 → RSW 11:28 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 2129 JFK 21:18 → RSW 00:42 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2320 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:10	RSW 11:28	11%	3%	12.9%	89%
B6 1529 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:09	RSW 11:16	22%	6%	14.0%	87%
B6 2129 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:18	RSW 00:42	32%	14%	9.5%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON