Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 683 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 683 JFK 08:55 → SAN 11:55 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AS 25 JFK 16:57 → SAN 20:08 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 683 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:55	SAN 11:55	11%	3%	0.8%	82%
B6 189 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:45	SAN 10:34	13%	4%	0.9%	90%
AS 35 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SAN 14:27	17%	4%	0.7%	77%
B6 1189 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:59	SAN 19:01	24%	6%	1.0%	82%
DL 709 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:30	SAN 20:34	26%	6%	1.0%	75%
DL 685 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:29	SAN 23:43	26%	6%	0.9%	75%
AS 25 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 16:57	SAN 20:08	28%	6%	0.8%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → SAN 11:34DL 712	8h 34m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 12:59 → DTW 15:00DL 2343	1h 35m Detroit	DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14DL 369	8h 15m	97%	74%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	1h 08m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → SAN 13:05AA 466	8h 06m	92%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON