Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1166 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:30	SAT 11:42	9%	3%	0.7%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408	8h 38m	100%	86%
American Details →	JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29AA 475	2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:01 → SAT 13:11AA 4084 · flown by Envoy	7h 41m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:26DL 5765 · flown by Republic	1h 34m Boston	BOS 09:00 → SAT 12:24DL 816	7h 24m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009	7h 30m	97%	82%
American Details →	JFK 11:21 → DFW 14:17AA 2049	3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:26 → SAT 18:36AA 3781 · flown by Envoy	8h 15m	99%	79%
American Details →	JFK 10:11 → ORD 12:05AA 4365 · flown by Republic	2h 54m Chicago	ORD 14:59 → SAT 17:59AA 4176 · flown by Envoy	8h 48m	97%	78%
American Details →	JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369	3h 12m Phoenix	PHX 12:30 → SAT 16:42AA 2497	10h 40m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	47m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → SAT 13:36DL 3123	8h 36m	88%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JFK 15:30 → CLT 17:44AA 1294	50m Charlotte	CLT 18:34 → SAT 20:40AA 1258	6h 10m	75%	55%
American Details →	JFK 17:25 → MIA 20:59AA 688	53m Miami	MIA 21:52 → SAT 23:59AA 1468	7h 34m	63%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON