Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 741 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Safest bet that day B6 741 JFK 06:30 → SAV 08:48 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 341 JFK 16:30 → SAV 19:04 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 741 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:30	SAV 08:48	7%	4%	1.6%	89%
B6 341 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SAV 19:04	21%	11%	1.7%	59%
DL 5207 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 08:34	SAV 11:07	13%	3%	4.0%	87%
DL 5459 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 18:59	SAV 21:49	21%	9%	7.8%	79%
DL 5460 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 14:50	SAV 17:31	21%	5%	4.3%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON