Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 76 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 76 JFK 06:00 → SFO 09:21 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 615 JFK 18:30 → SFO 22:10 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 76 American Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SFO 09:21	6%	2%	1.0%	90%
B6 115 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SFO 09:15	10%	2%	0.8%	83%
DL 668 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	SFO 10:15	11%	3%	0.7%	74%
AA 179 American Flight history →	JFK 07:58	SFO 11:19	11%	4%	1.0%	82%
B6 15 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:00	SFO 11:20	13%	4%	0.8%	87%
B6 215 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:30	SFO 14:08	15%	4%	0.8%	78%
AA 149 American Flight history →	JFK 10:29	SFO 13:54	15%	4%	1.0%	60%
DL 669 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	SFO 12:19	16%	4%	0.7%	74%
AS 227 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 09:30	SFO 12:52	16%	4%	0.8%	82%
DL 679 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:55	SFO 18:24	18%	7%	0.7%	75%
DL 363 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:15	SFO 14:33	18%	4%	0.7%	73%
AA 177 American Flight history →	JFK 21:26	SFO 00:59	19%	6%	1.1%	66%
AS 41 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SFO 14:50	19%	5%	0.8%	64%
AA 15 American Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:05	21%	6%	1.0%	75%
DL 365 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:06	23%	7%	0.7%	67%
B6 515 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:59	SFO 00:38	24%	8%	1.0%	65%
B6 415 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:45	SFO 19:11	24%	7%	0.9%	67%
DL 1732 Delta Flight history →	JFK 21:15	SFO 00:53	25%	7%	0.7%	64%
AS 59 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 18:55	SFO 22:33	27%	10%	0.8%	53%
DL 667 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:00	SFO 22:40	29%	9%	0.7%	62%
B6 615 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:30	SFO 22:10	29%	9%	0.9%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 54m	96%	80%
American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	1h 43m Charlotte	CLT 09:40 → SFO 12:19AA 2562	9h 20m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750	9h 10m	96%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON