tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 11:14, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest 10h 12m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 2h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 9h 35m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:00 → LAX 10:58DL 713 3h 34m Los Angeles LAX 14:32 → SJC 15:46DL 3822 · flown by SkyWest 10h 46m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:00 → LAX 09:49DL 742 3h 08m Los Angeles LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 10h 12m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:14DL 699 1h 31m Seattle SEA 11:45 → SJC 14:15DL 3789 · flown by SkyWest 10h 15m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 10h 52m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719 3h 00m Seattle SEA 17:50 → SJC 20:14DL 4100 · flown by SkyWest 11h 44m 97% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21 52m Seattle SEA 11:08 → SJC 13:20AS 335 9h 20m 75% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON