Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 403 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–34%.

Safest bet that day B6 403 JFK 05:01 → SJU 08:47 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest B6 303 JFK 20:00 → SJU 00:13 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 403 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 05:01	SJU 08:47	10%	4%	0.8%	73%
DL 1966 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:00	SJU 12:00	10%	2%	0.7%	80%
DL 1961 Delta Flight history →	JFK 12:45	SJU 16:38	12%	3%	0.8%	84%
B6 1603 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:29	SJU 12:27	18%	5%	0.8%	77%
B6 903 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:15	SJU 11:09	19%	6%	0.8%	63%
DL 1859 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:29	SJU 23:53	20%	7%	0.9%	70%
B6 503 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 09:59	SJU 14:07	21%	6%	0.8%	72%
B6 703 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:00	SJU 15:59	23%	7%	0.8%	65%
B6 2903 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:29	SJU 22:45	33%	13%	0.9%	60%
B6 803 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:29	SJU 21:39	34%	11%	0.9%	66%
B6 303 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:00	SJU 00:13	34%	14%	0.9%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON