Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 161 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:30	SMF 21:59	26%	14%	0.8%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	2h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	9h 16m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → LAX 13:49DL 767	2h 49m Los Angeles	LAX 16:38 → SMF 18:11DL 3712 · flown by SkyWest	10h 11m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887	3h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	10h 17m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	3h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:35 → SMF 18:16DL 2585	10h 02m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	59m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	7h 54m	94%	82%
American Details →	JFK 15:40 → LAX 18:48AA 341	2h 56m Los Angeles	LAX 21:44 → SMF 23:20AA 4908 · flown by SkyWest	10h 40m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 15:20 → LAX 18:24DL 738	3h 11m Los Angeles	LAX 21:35 → SMF 23:07DL 4083 · flown by SkyWest	10h 47m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:00 → LAX 09:49DL 742	2h 16m Los Angeles	LAX 12:05 → SMF 13:32DL 3812 · flown by SkyWest	9h 32m	97%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JFK 15:30 → CLT 17:44AA 1294	47m Charlotte	CLT 18:31 → SMF 21:03AA 2508	8h 33m	73%	52%
Alaska Details →	JFK 11:30 → SAN 14:27AS 35	46m San Diego	SAN 15:13 → SMF 17:00AS 3035 · flown by SkyWest	8h 30m	66%	45%
Alaska Details →	JFK 16:29 → SEA 20:09AS 31	46m Seattle	SEA 20:55 → SMF 22:48AS 1427	9h 19m	55%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON