Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2683 American Flight history →	JFK 08:00	SNA 10:58	11%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 403 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:35	SNA 10:28	12%	3%	0.8%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29AA 475	2h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:23 → SNA 13:31AA 2684	10h 01m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081	8h 39m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329	9h 31m	99%	80%
American Details →	JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953	3h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:16 → SNA 22:24AA 348	10h 42m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	1h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → SNA 11:50DL 1835	8h 50m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	3h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → SNA 18:25DL 3856 · flown by SkyWest	10h 11m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:30 → LAS 14:01DL 807	4h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 18:01 → SNA 19:15DL 4179 · flown by SkyWest	10h 45m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23	2h 51m Seattle	SEA 19:10 → SNA 22:01AS 631	12h 01m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JFK 17:25 → DFW 20:30AA 606	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:16 → SNA 22:24AA 348	7h 59m	74%	59%
Alaska Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21	50m Seattle	SEA 11:06 → SNA 13:55AS 1357	9h 55m	73%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON