Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1930 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:00	STT 12:11	13%	3%	0.8%	81%
AA 2741 American Flight history →	JFK 07:06	STT 10:59	16%	6%	0.9%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	2h 00m Charlotte	CLT 09:57 → STT 13:48AA 2432	7h 49m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 10:35 → STT 14:23DL 1902	8h 23m	98%	80%
American Details →	JFK 05:55 → MIA 09:12AA 655	55m Miami	MIA 10:07 → STT 12:59AA 2744	7h 04m	91%	71%
JetBlue Details →	JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:14B6 2718	2h 42m Boston	BOS 09:56 → STT 13:59B6 807	7h 59m	98%	69%
JetBlue Details →	JFK 08:29 → SJU 12:27B6 1603	2h 05m San Juan	SJU 14:32 → STT 15:09B6 936	6h 40m	96%	66%
American Details →	JFK 07:30 → MIA 10:45AA 2017	2h 23m Miami	MIA 13:08 → STT 16:00AA 2738	8h 30m	95%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON