Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 1554 at 05:03 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day AS 1554 JNU 05:03 → SEA 08:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 66 JNU 18:31 → SEA 21:57 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1554 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 05:03	SEA 08:26	8%	3%	1.6%	94%
DL 1605 Delta Flight history →	JNU 07:20	SEA 10:56	13%	6%	1.5%	98%worse than usual
AS 1533 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 07:00	SEA 10:29	17%	4%	1.5%	81%
AS 445 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 20:48	SEA 00:14	18%	6%	1.8%	96%worse than usual
AS 446 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 12:30	SEA 15:56	19%	5%	1.9%	71%
AS 456 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 13:54	SEA 17:20	20%	5%	1.8%	72%
AS 66 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 18:31	SEA 21:57	21%	7%	1.6%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON