Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 70 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 22:18	SIT 22:59	17%	5%	2.6%	85%
AS 62 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 09:55	SIT 10:40	17%	6%	6.0%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sitka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	JNU 13:54 → SEA 17:20AS 456	3h 58m Seattle	SEA 21:18 → SIT 22:44AS 91	8h 50m	100%	67%
Alaska Details →	JNU 05:03 → SEA 08:26AS 1554	3h 09m Seattle	SEA 11:35 → SIT 13:10AS 633	8h 07m	100%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON