Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via SFO, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1759 United Flight history →	KOA 20:00	DEN 06:49	7%	3%	0.7%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 4 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	KOA 07:00 → SFO 15:10UA 1321	3h 46m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436	11h 44m	100%	82%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:03 → SEA 16:55AS 513	3h 16m Seattle	SEA 20:11 → DEN 23:59AS 642	11h 56m	100%	71%
United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	57m San Francisco	SFO 21:00 → DEN 00:47 +1UA 301	8h 52m	85%	68%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	59m San Diego	SAN 20:01 → DEN 23:30AS 1619	8h 53m	79%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON