Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2166 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2166 KOA 06:05 → HNL 06:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AS 1067 KOA 12:18 → HNL 13:07 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2166 Southwest Flight history →	KOA 06:05	HNL 06:55	3%	1%	0.6%	98%
WN 2167 Southwest Flight history →	KOA 08:05	HNL 08:55	3%	1%	0.7%	98%
AS 1017 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 06:00	HNL 06:47	8%	2%	1.2%	94%
WN 2168 Southwest Flight history →	KOA 11:35	HNL 12:30	9%	2%	0.7%	93%
WN 2169 Southwest Flight history →	KOA 15:35	HNL 16:30	10%	2%	0.7%	100%
WN 2170 Southwest Flight history →	KOA 19:00	HNL 19:55	11%	3%	0.7%	93%
AS 1027 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 08:31	HNL 09:19	18%	3%	1.1%	87%
AS 1037 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 09:44	HNL 10:32	22%	4%	1.1%	82%
AS 1167 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 19:15	HNL 20:03	23%	6%	1.1%	88%worse than usual
AS 1057 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 10:51	HNL 11:40	24%	4%	1.2%	76%
AS 1177 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 20:45	HNL 21:33	24%	6%	1.1%	89%worse than usual
AS 1127 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 16:33	HNL 17:20	26%	6%	1.2%	85%worse than usual
AS 1077 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 13:26	HNL 14:15	26%	5%	1.1%	78%
AS 1097 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 14:34	HNL 15:23	27%	7%	1.2%	71%
AS 1137 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 17:02	HNL 17:49	28%	7%	1.3%	74%
AS 1147 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 17:45	HNL 18:32	28%	6%	1.0%	75%
AS 1157 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 18:30	HNL 19:17	28%	6%	1.1%	76%
AS 1107 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 15:11	HNL 16:00	28%	5%	1.2%	76%
AS 1087 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 14:08	HNL 14:57	28%	6%	1.2%	72%
AS 1067 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 12:18	HNL 13:07	31%	6%	1.2%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON