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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Honolulu, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2171 Southwest Flight history → KOA 20:25 LAS 05:05 7% 2% 0.6% 100%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → KOA 06:05 → HNL 06:55WN 2166 1h 05m Honolulu HNL 08:00 → LAS 16:50WN 1913 7h 45m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → KOA 08:05 → HNL 08:55WN 2167 3h 00m Honolulu HNL 11:55 → LAS 20:45WN 1914 9h 40m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → KOA 19:00 → HNL 19:55WN 2170 1h 00m Honolulu HNL 20:55 → LAS 05:45 +1WN 1915 7h 45m 89% 81%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 19:15 → HNL 20:03AS 1167 3h 17m Honolulu HNL 23:20 → LAS 08:03 +1AS 808 9h 48m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → KOA 12:57 → LAX 21:26UA 2372 1h 33m Los Angeles LAX 22:59 → LAS 00:21 +1UA 2315 8h 24m 96% 72%
AlaskaDetails → KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017 1h 08m Honolulu HNL 07:55 → LAS 16:39AS 806 7h 39m 96% 71%
UnitedDetails → KOA 07:00 → SFO 15:10UA 1321 2h 27m San Francisco SFO 17:37 → LAS 19:27UA 751 9h 27m 100% 70%
UnitedDetails → KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722 2h 56m San Francisco SFO 22:59 → LAS 00:46 +1UA 2839 9h 51m 98% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON