Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1719 KOA 22:15 → LAX 06:32 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 58 KOA 15:36 → LAX 23:59 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1719 United Flight history →	KOA 22:15	LAX 06:32	8%	4%	0.7%	96%
UA 2372 United Flight history →	KOA 12:57	LAX 21:26	11%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 486 Delta Flight history →	KOA 20:40	LAX 05:00	12%	6%	1.0%	90%
AS 920 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 11:15	LAX 19:32	15%	4%	0.8%	88%
AA 58 American Flight history →	KOA 15:36	LAX 23:59	15%	6%	0.7%	85%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	KOA 19:00 → HNL 19:55WN 2170	55m Honolulu	HNL 20:50 → LAX 05:15 +1WN 4082	7h 15m	87%	76%
Alaska Details →	KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017	1h 13m Honolulu	HNL 08:00 → LAX 16:20AS 810	7h 20m	97%	72%
Alaska Details →	KOA 12:51 → OGG 13:28AS 1149	1h 32m Kahului	OGG 15:00 → LAX 23:07AS 934	7h 16m	96%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON